In December 2023, the average prudential balanced portfolio returned 1.70% (November 2023: 5.9%). The top performer is Namibia Coronation Balanced Plus Fund, with 2.4%, while Ninety One Namibia Managed Fund, with 0.8%, takes the bottom spot. Namibia Coronation Balanced Fund took the top spot for the three months, outperforming the ‘average’ by roughly 1.7%. Hangala Capital Absolute Balanced Fund underperformed the ‘average’ by 1.9% on the other end of the scale. Note that these returns are before (gross of) asset management fees.
The Monthly Review of Portfolio Performance to 31 December 2023 also reflects the editor’s views on current developments and their impact on investment markets.
Is anyone out there concerned about another ‘great war’?
I observe with trepidation how the US got half the world to firmly toe its line in meeting the concerted challenge to its dominance relating to Russia, the Middle East and the Far East. I perceive a vigorous US will to reinforce itself by all means. Its economic measures proved to be ineffective against Russia. It has not yet instituted any determined economic measures against China, as it could be a double-edged sword. As for Europe, in the case of Russia, the US prefers to let its European allies carry the costly burden of its economic measures. While there is still too much at stake for sanctioning China, shifting manufacturing away from China will make it easier to put the thumbscrews on China. In the cases of other smaller countries, in particular the smaller BRICS member states, the US will pursue its maxim of ‘divide et empera’. The unjustified Rand weakness is a symptom of political pressures on ‘unruly’ countries. However, Africa has the market and the natural resources to withstand any pressure from anywhere, provided it stands together to the motto, ex unitate vires.
The US is now left with one of two options. Either it accepts the establishment of a multipolar world and finds its best fit into the new global order, or it embroils all its geopolitical adversaries in a third World War. Reading European media, one must become very concerned about the evident shift from a pacifist tone since World War II to creating a war atmosphere more recently. I believe the stakes for the US are too high to give up its global dominance. It does not seem that its major global adversaries will relent in their challenge of US dominance. Because the Ukraine proxy war is unlikely to subjugate Russia, and because China will unlikely backtrack on its chosen path, the US will only have a chance to maintain its dominance by going to war.
European leaders have stated in unison that Russia may not win this war. It becomes evident that Ukraine will not withstand the Russian pressure for too long. The fact that one reads more regularly about peace initiatives supports the assertion that Ukraine is losing this war. Russia’s progress in the war would leave the European leaders with only one face-saving alternative: to get involved actively. If it were left to Ukraine, NATO would have been drawn into the war a long time ago with claims of a Russian missile attack on Poland that later proved to be a Ukrainian missile. Now, Poland wants NATO to help it protect its airspace. In my reading, it is another pretence for drawing NATO into the war, unleashing World War III. It seems governments worldwide believe another great war will be good for the world and solve many problems it is currently facing.
In the Monthly Review of Portfolio Performance to 31 December 2023, we elaborate on the strategies an investor should follow under the above circumstances. It also reflects the editor’s views on current developments and their impact on investment markets.